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世俗快乐原来就是终极快乐
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作者:张无忌之1989 提交日期:2004-2-27 21:53:00 | 分类: | 访问量:507
今天的功课(二)
贸易通过强化竞争和降低投入品价格,也直接导致生产率的提高。IT产业尤其是如此。华盛顿国际经济学研究所的凯瑟琳•曼恩(Catherine Mann)在她对信息服务的“离岸业务”分析中,强有力地论证了这个观点。而这点正是当前偏激的保护主义者关注的焦点。*
 By increasing competition and lowering the prices of inputs, trade can also generate higher productivity directly. This is particularly true for IT, a point made with great force by Catherine Mann, of the Washington-based Institute for International Economics, in her analysis of "offshoring" of IT services, which is, alas, the current focus of protectionist paranoia.*
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曼恩女士指出,1990年代末期,IT硬件生产的全球化,使硬件价格与没有全球化相比降低10-30%。如果没有IT生产的全球化,实际GDP增长可能每年会减少0.3%。现在机会更多的是IT软件。由于该部门正在利用更廉价的外国技能,经济生产率更快增长的潜力是巨大的。经济中的软件开发部门将会失去某些工作,但是更多的活动将在其他方面创造出来。
 In the late 1990s, argues Ms Mann, globalisation of IT hardware production made hardware about 10 to 30 per cent cheaper than it would otherwise have been. Real GDP growth might have been some 0.3 percentage points less a year if IT production had not been globalised. Now it is IT software where opportunities are largest. The potential for faster productivity growth in the economy, as cheap foreign skills are applied to this sector, are enormous. Some jobs will disappear in the software-producing sectors of the economy. But more activity will be generated elsewhere.
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麦肯锡环球研究所在对离岸业务的研究中,从不同的角度阐述了同样的观点。**该研究很有说服力地指出,美国将通过几种渠道获取经济好处:降低成本(每1美元用于海外购买降低成本大约0.58美元);外国个人购买美国产品和劳务创造新的收入来源(每1美元用于海外购买增加收入大约0.05美元);遣返利润(每1美元用于海外购买返回大约0.04美元);替代美国国内劳动力(每1美元用于海外购买创造大约0.45-0.47美元)。总体而言,美国获益1.12-1.14美元,而外国另外获益0.33美元(见图表)。虽然人们不应该过于重视个别的估计,但是总体的论点是有力的。事实上,如同曼昆教授所说,在服务方面也没有什么例外。他表示,“与过去相比,更多的东西可以进行贸易,这是好事情。”
 The same point is made, in a different way, by the McKinsey Global Institute's study of offshoring.** It argues, persuasively, that the US will capture economic gains through several channels: reduced costs (about $0.58 for each dollar spent overseas); new revenues, as overseas providers buy US goods and services (about $0.05 per dollar spent); repatriated profits (about $0.04 per dollar spent); and redeployment of domestic US labour (about $0.45-$0.47 per dollar spent). Overall, then, the US gains $1.12-$1.14, while the foreign country gains another $0.33 (see chart). Nobody should take the specific estimates seriously. But the broad point is powerful. As Prof Mankiw did, in fact, say, there is nothing exceptional about services. As he argued, "more things are tradable than were tradable in the past. And that's a good thing."
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假若政治家们阻止离岸业务的企图获得成功,那么这将能够保住程序员和呼叫中心接线员的工作吗?最终的答案是否定的。不管怎样,这类工作都将受到技术发展的威胁。所能够达到的效果,只是提高用户成本,放缓经济进步。
 Suppose the politicians did succeed in halting offshoring. Would that save the jobs of programmers or call centre operators? In all probability, no. Both are vulnerable to technology in any case. All it would do is raise costs to users and slow economic advance.
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最令人遗憾的是,这场争论不仅仅责怪外国人,而且也与美国面临挑战的关键问题无关。最重要的挑战,是创造可持续增长的需求。同样,美国面临重大的结构调整。正如联邦储备委员会主席艾伦•格林斯潘上周五表示的那样,如果自己的人民要从新产生的国际分工中享受好处,他们需要高质量的教育。除此之外,有理由对非技术工人的工资予以补贴。
 What is depressing about the debate is not just the blaming of foreigners but also its irrelevance to the challenges confronting the US. The most immediate of these is to create sustained growth in demand. Equally, the US confronts significant structural challenges. If its people are to gain from the emerging division of labour, they need high-quality education, as Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, argued last Friday. In addition, a case can be made for subsidising the wages of the working unskilled.
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任何有损生活水平提高、威胁美国自由贸易承诺、攻击贫穷但人口众多的民主国家新获得出口机会(至少表明了其试图参与全球经济活动的意愿)的政策,都必须加以避免。美国国会议员需要有一个自我把握。攻击廉价服务进口并不比哀叹生产率提高更合乎逻辑。他们应当记住,美国会从两者中获得巨大利益。
 What must be avoided are policies that undermine increases in living standards, threaten the US commitment to liberal trade and, not least, attack the nascent exports of a poor and gigantic democracy that is, at last, trying to participate in the global economy. US legislators need to take a grip of themselves. Attacking cheap imports of services is no more logical than bewailing rising productivity. The US, they should remember, benefits hugely from both.
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*IT服务全球化和白领工作:下一波生产率增长,2003年12月,www.iie.com;**离岸业务:一种双赢游戏吗?
 * Globalization of IT Services and White Collar Jobs: The Next Wave of Productivity Growth, December 2003, www.iie.com; ** Offshoring: Is it a Win-Win Game?
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2003年8月,www.mckinsey.com/knowledge/mgi/offshore
 August 2003, www.mckinsey.com/knowledge/mgi/offshore
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作者电子邮件:martin.wolf@ft.com
 martin.wolf@ft.com
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译者/秋实

#日志日期:2004-2-27 星期五(Friday) 多云 送小红花 推荐指数:复制链接 举报



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